Guide
What is intermarket analysis?
Intermarket analysis is the study of how the four big markets — currencies, bonds, stocks and commodities — influence one another. Instead of reading one chart in isolation, you check whether the dollar, interest rates, equities and raw materials are telling a consistent story before you take a trade.
Why does intermarket analysis matter for retail traders?
A single chart shows only part of the picture, and a trade sized without regard to wider conditions can lose more than expected if those conditions turn against it. A EUR/USD long can look perfect on its own chart while rising US yields and a risk-off stock market are pulling the other way. Checking related markets is a simple filter: when they agree, a setup has more context behind it; when they conflict, it is a reason to size down or wait.
What are the core intermarket relationships?
These are tendencies, not laws. They can weaken or reverse for long periods.
| Driver | Typical effect | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Rising bond yields | Often supports the currency; can pressure growth stocks | Higher borrowing costs, tighter conditions |
| Stronger US dollar | Often weighs on dollar-priced commodities like gold | Tighter global financial conditions |
| Rising oil | Can lift commodity currencies such as CAD | Inflation pressure, input costs |
| Risk-on mood | Equities and higher-yield currencies (e.g. AUD) tend to firm | Appetite for risk |
| Risk-off mood | Safe havens (JPY, CHF, gold, government bonds) tend to firm | Demand for safety |
What does risk-on vs risk-off mean?
"Risk-on" describes periods when investors favour growth assets — stocks, higher-yielding currencies, industrial commodities. "Risk-off" describes a rush toward safety — government bonds, the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc and gold. Identifying the regime helps you understand why many markets move together on the same day.
How might a trader apply it? (illustrative example)
Illustrative only — not a real trade or recommendation. Suppose AUD/USD shows an uptrend on the daily chart. Before buying, a trader checks: are equities firm (risk-on)? Is the US dollar broadly weakening? Are industrial commodities holding up? If all three agree, the long has supportive context. If stocks are falling and yields are spiking, the same chart pattern deserves a smaller position or patience.
What are the limitations of intermarket analysis?
- Correlations shift; a relationship that held last year may not hold now.
- Event shocks (central bank decisions, geopolitical escalations) can override every relationship.
- It provides context, not timing — you still need entry, stop and size rules.
How does myMarketAnalyst.ai use intermarket analysis?
The dashboard summarises the regime (risk-on / risk-off), a sentiment score and biases for the dollar, yields, equities, gold and oil, then shows multi-timeframe trend tables for each asset class. The risk doctrine biases calls toward HOLD when markets disagree. See how it works, the methodology and limits, or plans.